Growls

Well, that’s not what Arlington County's elected political leaders were told at yesterday’s joint meeting of the County and Schools Boards, but Scott McCaffrey reports in a story posted today at the online Arlington Sun-Gazette:

“Increases in tax rates and reductions in county services loom in coming years, unless economic conditions surprise the experts and turn significantly upward, County Manager Ron Carlee believes.

“Carlee on June 18 predicted there was an “extremely high probability” that the County Board will need to raise the real estate tax rate again next year, and a substantial probability that any rate increase would have to be coupled with reductions in services.”

Carlee then went on to say that a train wreck isn’t likely. According to McCaffrey:

“While the situation is not good, Carlee said it isn't catastrophic, either.

“I don't think I'm a prophet of doom,” he told board members at a work session.”

In a related online story today, however, McCaffrey reports:

“County Board members and their School Board colleagues appear united on moving forward with a proposed set of 2008 bond referendums, but are at loggerheads over when to seek voter support for what will be one of the biggest projects in county history: a $157 million rebuilding of Wakefield High School.”

Apparently, neither the Superintendent nor School Board members heard what County Manager Ron Carlee said about economic conditions over the next several years, as McCaffrey reports:

“Under sharp questioning from County Board members, Smith and School Board members had trouble coming up with specific reasons why the Wakefield project couldn't wait for inclusion in the 2012 referendum.”

McCaffrey concluded his second report with this paragraph:

“Even though all 10 participants were Democrats, the work session between the two independently-elected bodies had its fair share of sniping, lecturing, posturing and tension. At one point, Smith attempted a budget joke, but few on the County Board side of the table could be seen laughing.”

Is a train wreck looming in Arlington County's future? If the County Board remains steadfast, and ln fact listens to the financial advice provided by the Manager, then it’s not very likely. However, take a look at the graph on page 18 of the Manager’s slide presentation (available here; requires Adobe). Perhaps not likely, but also looming on the horizon are increasing tax burdens by the state because of transportation funding currently being pushed, not to mention increasing tax burdens needed to fund the federal “entitlements” train wreck. Just how much tax burden are taxpayers willing to shoulder?

HT to Wayne Kubicki for his assistance on interpreting the Manager's slides and improving my original title which asked whether a train wreck loomed in Arlington County's future.