U.S. Economy Looks Weaker, Federal Reserve Survey
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, "The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy looks weaker now than it did three months ago, according to the participants in the Third Quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters. The forecasters also see weaker conditions in the labor market." (HT Breitbart's Big Government, August 13, 2012. Above graphic is from the Big Government story.)
Here's what the Bank had to say about growth:
"The forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 1.6 percent this quarter, down from the previous estimate of 2.5 percent. The forecasters see real GDP growing 2.2 percent in 2012. Three months ago, they expected growth of 2.3 percent. Projections for real GDP are 2.1 percent in 2013, 2.7 percent in 2014, and 3.1 percent in 2015."
They also project the unemployment rate will be 8.2% in 2012, and then fall to 7.9% in 2013 before dropping to 7.0% in 2015. On inflation, the Bank said:
"The forecasters expect current-quarter headline CPI inflation to average 1.5 percent, down from the last survey’s estimate of 2.3 percent. The forecasters predict current-quarter headline PCE inflation of 1.5 percent, 0.4 percentage points lower than their previous estimate.
"Measured on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis, headline CPI inflation is expected to average 1.8 percent in 2012, down from 2.3 percent in the last survey; 2.2 percent in 2013, up from 2.1 percent; and 2.3 percent in 2014, down from 2.5 percent.
"Forecasters expect fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter headline PCE inflation to average 1.7 percent in 2012, down from 2.1 percent in the last survey; 2.0 percent in 2013, unchanged from the previous estimate; and 2.2 percent in 2014, also unchanged from the previous estimate."
Excuse the spate of pessimism that goes back to at least our growls on August 1, 2012. BTW, the survey of macroeconomic variables first began in 1968.